The Stochastic Man

Lombroso made no reply, merely stood there against the magnificent backdrop of his collection of medieval treasures, digging his fingers deep into his dense black beard and studying me with those piercing eyes. There was a long worrisome silence. Yet I felt I had been right in coming to him rather than to Mardikian. Of the entire Qui

I said eventually, “Is it a deal? You won’t repeat anything I tell you today?”

“Depends.”

“On what?”

“On whether I agree with you that it’s best to conceal the thing you want concealed.”

“I tell you, and then you decide?”

“Yes.”

“I can’t do that, Bob.”

“That means you don’t trust me either, right?”

I considered for a moment. Intuition said go ahead, tell him everything. Caution said there was at least a chance he might override me and take the story to Qui

“All right,” I said “I’ll tell you the story. I hope that whatever I say remains between you and me.”

“Go ahead,” Lombroso said.

I took a deep breath. “I had lunch with Carvajal a few days ago. He told me that Qui

Lombroso stared. “Are you out of your mind, Lew?”

“I might be. Why?”

“You really do believe that Carvajal can see the future?”

“He plays the stock market as though he can read next month’s newspapers, Bob. He tipped us about Leydecker dying and Socorro taking over. He told us about Gilmartin. He—”

“Oil gellation, too, yes: So he guesses well. I think we’ve already had this conversation at least once, Lew.”

“He doesn’t guess. I guess. He sees. ”

Lombroso contemplated me. He was trying to look patient and tolerant, but he seemed troubled. He is above all else a man of reason; and I was talking madness to him. “You think he can predict the content of an off-the-cuff speech that isn’t due to be delivered for three weeks?”

“I do.”

“How is such a thing possible?”

I thought of Carvajal’s tablecloth diagram, of the two streams of time flowing in opposite directions. I couldn’t try to sell that to Lombroso. I said, “I don’t know. I don’t know at all. I take it on faith. He’s shown me enough evidence so that I’m convinced he can do it, Bob.”

Lombroso looked unconvinced.

“This is the first I’ve heard that Qui

“Nothing. Not yet.”

“Not yet? When does it start to turn up?”

“In a few months, Bob. Carvajal says the Times will run a feature this fall on the way Qui

“Don’t you think I’d know it pretty quickly if Qui

“You’re a millionaire. So are your friends,” I told him. “You can’t get a representative sampling of popular opinion hanging out with millionaires. You aren’t even a representative Jew, Bob. You said so yourself: you’re a Sephardic, you’re Latin, and Sephardim are an elite, a minority, an aristocratic little caste that has very little in common with Mrs. Goldstein and Mr. Rosenblum. Qui

Shrugging, Lombroso said, “I’ll admit there’s some truth in that. But we’re getting off the track, aren’t we? What’s your actual problem, Lew?”

“I want to warn Qui

“Won’t let you?”

“He says the speech is destined to occur as he perceived it, and he insists I simply let it take place. If I do anything to prevent Qui

Lombroso, looking perturbed and mournful, walked in slow circles around his office. “I don’t know which is crazier,” he said finally. “Believing that Carvajal can see the future, or fearing that he’ll get even with you if you transmit his hunch to Qui

“It’s not a hunch. It’s a true vision.”

“So you say.”

“Bob, more than anything else I want to see Paul Qui

“Carvajal may be just—”

“I have complete faith in him!” I said, with a passion that surprised me, for until that moment I still had had lingering uncertainties about Carvajal’s power, and now I was fully committed to its validity. “That’s why I can’t risk a break with him.”

“So tell Qui

“He’ll know.”

“We can a

“He’ll know.”

“We can hint to Qui

“Carvajal will know I did it,” I said.

“He really has you by the throat, doesn’t he?”

“What shall I do, Bob? Carvajal’s going to be fantastically useful to us, whatever you may think at the moment. I don’t want to take the chance of spoiling things with him.”

“Then don’t. Let the Kuwaiti speech happen as scheduled, if you’re so worried about offending Carvajal. A few wisecracks aren’t going to do permanent damage, are they?”

“They won’t help any.”

“They won’t hurt that much. We’ve got two years before Qui

“What do you mean?”

“You worry me. All this lunacy about seeing the future. And so much dither over one lousy speech. Maybe you need some rest. I know you’ve been under a great strain lately, and—”

“Strain?”

“Sundara,” he said. “We don’t need to pretend I don’t know what’s going on.”

“I’m not happy about Sundara, no. But if you think my wife’s pseudo-religious activities have affected my judgment, my mental balance, my ability to function as a member of the mayor’s staff—”

“I’m only suggesting that you’re very tired. Tired men find many things to worry about, not all of them real, and worrying makes them even more tired. Break the pattern, Lew. Skip off to Canada for a couple of weeks, say. A little hunting and fishing and you’ll be a new man. I have a friend who has an estate near Banff, a nice thousand-hectare spread up in the mountains, and—”

“Thanks, but I’m in better shape than you seem to think,” I said. “I’m sorry I wasted your time this morning.”

“Not at all a waste. It’s important for us to share our difficulties, Lew. For all I know, Carvajal does see the future. But it’s a hard notion for a rational man like me to swallow.”

“Assume it’s true. What do you advise?”

“Assuming it’s true, I think you’d be wise not to do anything that could turn Carvajal off. Assuming it’s true. Assuming it’s true, it’s in our best interests to milk him for further information, and therefore you ought not chance a break over something as minor as the consequences of this one speech.”