Gust Front

«If they are out of their vehicles and in prepared positions—not fortresses, just dug in—standard Army units have about a ten-to-one advantage over the Posleen. That is based on game theory and observational evidence from Barwhon.

«However, projections place Posleen forces at over one hundred to one for the total invasion.

«In this case we are talking about the five divisions in northern Virginia that will have time to dig in. Sort of, not well, just foxholes and bunkers and a little concertina. Locally emplaced minefields, some claymores, some Bouncing Bettys and M-833s. A division runs about sixteen thousand troops in its current configuration. About seven thousand of those troops actually fire weapons at the enemy.»

«I know all those figures, General,» snapped the President.

«Yes, sir, you do, but frankly neither you nor General Olds have done the math.»

«I never said I'd spoken to General Olds,» the President said.

«No, sir, you didn't; however, he is the most senior proponent of Forward Defense and he is a player in the Washington scene,» the general retorted angrily. «I understand you did consult with him during your election campaign, which, since he was a serving officer, pushed a line that most officers don't prefer to push. Have I made my point, Mr. President?»

«Go on,» said the President through clenched teeth.

«Yes, sir. Now, all I ask is that you do the math. If the math works out I will be the most vocal supporter of Forward Defense you ever heard. Are you ready, sir?»

«Don't get pedantic, General.»

«Certainly not, Mr. President.» The High Commander glared at the Commander in Chief for a long moment. «Here's the numbers. There are five divisions. Five. Give them the absolute benefit of the doubt, all the forces are in place. There are four million Posleen. Assume that the majority do not head towards the larger target and turn north; we still can assume that they will split. Can I make that assumption, sir?»

«Yes,» answered the President, tightly.

«That is two million Posleen. Fifty-four hundred shooters per division. That includes all the infantry, cav and artillery. Five times fifty-four hundred is twenty-seven thousand. AID, twenty-seven thousand goes into two million how many times?»

«Seventy-four,» said the artificial intelligence device supplied to him as a courtesy by the Galactic Federation.

«Every shooter has to kill, not slow, not wound, kill seventy-four Posleen for a forward defense plan to work. That won't happen even with massive artillery support; it's just not in the cards. Those Posleen can pin the divisions with a fraction of their force and go around or they can overrun them and keep going.

«If they choose to simply overrun our divisions, by straight math they will lose a quarter of a million troops. That sounds great until you consider that that is about ten percent of their forces! If, when, our troops get flanked the defense ratio goes out the window and the Posleen gain a two-to-one advantage over our troops, at which point it is all over but the screams.»

General Taylor wiped his face for a moment, trying to find an argument, any argument, to stop the insanity he knew was about to occur. «Now if you can tell me how five divisions can stop two million Posleen, I will be happy to give 'cheerful and willing obedience to your orders' that I know are coming. If you can't, all I ask is that you consider the effect that the loss of eighty thousand soldiers will have on the American people's morale,» he ended quietly.

«Why eighty thousand?» asked the secretary of defense. «You said there were twenty-seven thousand.»

«There are sixteen thousand men and women in a division, Mr. Secretary. Given the road network and movement speeds of the divisions versus Posleen movement speeds, I would estimate that eighty to one hundred percent of the corps would be overrun.»

«Don't you think you are underplaying the effect of armor and artillery on the Posleen, General?» asked the President. He actually appeared to be listening to General Taylor and considering his arguments. But after nearly a year's experience with the chief executive, Taylor was fairly sure he was not changing his mind.

«The Posleen three millimeter railguns go through Bradleys the long way and about one in ten carry a three millimeter. One in twenty carry an automatic hypervelocity missile launcher, which will take out an Abrams with a frontal hit. While they are 'unaimed,' what the term actually means is that the weapons don't have sights.

«However, the Posleen seem to be naturals at firing from the hip. And don't forget that those numbers discount the God Kings, whose weapons are automatically targeted and frighteningly accurate. They're accurate enough to act as antiaircraft fire against stealth fighters, for God's sake. There will be some five thousand God Kings in that mass. That's nearly a division of God Kings alone. And a God King is worth about five troops even if they are in the defense.»

«I thought they dealt with them through sniper fire,» commented the secretary of defense.

«That works in an ambush, sir, or where there is an intense conflict in limited terrain. But the God Kings are not all stupid. Most of them move in random evasion patterns that are hard as hell to hit and that is a lot of targets for snipers, even four or five at a time. The problem with Posleen is always a situation of target overload.»

«Artillery,» said the President.

«Probably our best bet,» the infuriated general admitted, «but artillery is a wounder not a killer. And the Posleen can take more wounding than humans. I want you to consider something, Mr. President. That video we just watched showed a mass of casualties from the battleship rounds, the most effective weapon we have in our arsenal. AID, have you calculated the casualties visible in the films of the battleship action?»

«Yes.»

«How many casualties?»

«Eight thousand, plus or minus four percent.»

«And that is what percentage of the total Posleen force?»

«Point one six percent or one point six mils.»

«Less than one percent, Mr. President, Mr. Secretary, actually, close to one-tenth of a percent.»

He looked at the two civilian controllers of the military and saw their recoil of shock. «Don't look so surprised. We have to do that same thing, kill just as many Posleen, nearly one thousand more times. And the North Carolina took a lot of damage even before the lander tore her up. So the question is where are we going to get all the battleships we need!»

«So you're saying that we can't stop them with artillery?» asked the President.

«Sir, every indication is that the Posleen don't retreat or suppress under fire. The only option is to kill them before they overrun you. While artillery reduces their numbers, it can only stop them with masses of firepower that are not realistic in this scenario. What I mean is we don't have that many tubes on hand. The artillery is useful for reducing their numbers. But it does not have the consequential effect that it does with humans. It does not make them stop and hunker down or retreat. They just wade through it, the stupid bastards, and if it kills all but one of them, that stupid bastard is too stupid not to charge the guns anyway.

«Unfortunately, what has generally happened on Barwhon is that artillery fire kills maybe thirty percent of maneuvering Posleen and then the other seventy percent hit the defenses like a tsunami. In this case, that would be, AID?»

«One million, three hundred and seventy two thousand plus or minus six percent assuming recognized ratios for bonding scatter and rear area security.»

«How many God Kings?»

«Three thousand four hundred and thirty, plus or minus ten percent.»

«Number of Posleen per shooter.»