Executive Intent

Many of China ’s systems, including the J-10 fighter jet, latest-generation tanks, navy destroyers, and cruise and intercontinental ballistic missiles, match or are close to matching the capabilities of those in the West, Liang Guanglie said in a rare interview posted on the ministry’s Web site. “This is an extraordinary achievement that speaks to the level of our military’s modernization and the huge change in our country’s technological strength,” Liang said.

… China ’s improved capabilities are also seen as emboldening the country’s military and civilian leaders in using force to back up political and territorial claims. Chinese ships have repeatedly harassed U.S. Navy surveillance vessels collecting intelligence off China ’s southeastern coast, while Chinese submarines have aggressively pursued aircraft-carrier battle groups.

…Analysts say the odds of conflict with the United States, Japan, and other regional militaries is likely to increase as China further beefs up its arsenal…

RUSSIA: PRESIDENT PROMISES REBUILT NAVY IN 10 YEARS (www.Stratfor.com, September 28, 2009): Russian president Dmitri Medvedev said during a meeting with military perso

CHINA: BEIJING TO BUILD LARGE DESTROYERS (www.Stratfor.com, October 9, 2009): Beijing plans to build a new generation of large destroyers as part of its effort to develop a modern blue-water navy, South China Morning Press reported October 9. The destroyers will displace more than ten thousand tons, according to a report by the China Shipbuilding Information Center -an institute under the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, the largest state-owned shipbuilder in China. According to the report, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) hopes the new destroyers-that will feature fully developed stealth technology-will close the gap in combat capability between the Chinese and Western navies.

U.S.: ADMIRAL CONCERNED ABOUT CHINA MILITARY BUILDUP (www.Stratfor.com, October 30, 2009): U.S. Rear Admiral Kevin Donegan said the United States wants to ensure that China’s unprecedented rate of military expansion doesn’t destabilize the region as China’s spending was up almost 15 percent in 2009, the Associated Press reported October 30…Donegan, commander of the USS George Washington, acknowledged the possibility of a Chinese aircraft carrier, stating concerns about antiaccess weapons…

CHINA: PAKISTAN TO BUY J-10 FIGHTERS-PAKISTANI OFFICIALS (www.Stratfor.com, November 10, 2009): China agreed to sell Pakistan two squadrons of J-10 fighters for as much as $1.4 billion, the Financial Times reported November 10, citing Pakistani and Western officials. A Pakistani official said more sales may follow, but denied that a deal had been made to buy up to 150 fighters. The Pakistani air force expects to buy at least 250 JF-17 Thunder fighters in the next four to five years. A Western official in Islamabad said Iran and Middle Eastern countries can find Western-like technology in China purchases; he added that Pakistan ’s purchase is a test case for the region.

PROLOGUE

The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance-it is the illusion of knowledge.

– DANIEL J. BOORSTIN

IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, 500 MILES SOUTH OF HONG KONG

WINTER 2010

“Who the hell is this again?” the lead pilot of the formation of U.S. Navy F/A-18E Super Hornets radioed.

“Hydra flight, I say again, this is Armstrong,” the unknown female controller repeated. “We have a visual on your single-ship bogey. How do you copy?”

“Stand by, Armstrong.” The pilot switched over to his interplane frequency. “Lego, you have any idea who this skirt is?”

“Sure, Timber,” the pilot of the second Hornet in the formation replied. “They told us they’d be on tactical freq but they didn’t say they’d be talking to us. You must’ve been late to the briefing.”

“Well, who is she?”

“It’s the space station,” the wingman replied. “Armstrong Space Station. Remember? The big-ass UFO-‘Unwanted Floating Object.’”

“Oh, for Christ’s sake, the damned Air Force,” the lead pilot complained. He remembered the briefing now: The Air Force’s military space station, Armstrong-what the Air Force was calling the headquarters of the U.S. Space Defense Force, although there was as yet no such thing-was conducting a test to see if its network of satellites could provide long-range surveillance data to tactical forces around the world. Instead of spying on big targets like enemy military bases, the Air Force wanted to see if they had enough capability to watch over and even direct forces right down to individual aircraft, ships, and squads. “Hey, Hydra One, is this for real?”

“Timber, this is an operational test,” the CAG, or Carrier Air Group commander, radioed from the USS George H. W. Bush, steaming about four hundred miles away. His radio messages were being relayed via an E-2C Hawkeye radar plane orbiting nearby. “If they can’t keep up, we’ll terminate. Otherwise, play along.”

“Rog,” the leader responded resignedly. Back on the tactical frequency: “Armstrong, Hydra flight, what do you got?”

In response, the F/A-18’s MFD, or Multi-Function Display, changed to show the Hornets and the single unidentified aircraft they were pursuing. The Hornet’s radar was in standby, but the display looked as if the radar was transmitting and locked on. The fire control computer was using the information from the space station to compute intercepts, weapon parameters, and was even reporting ready to steer radar-guided missiles-all as if the Hornet’s own radar was providing the information!

“You getting this, Timber?” the wingman radioed. “Pretty fucking cool.”

“We get the same dope from the Hawkeye.”

“Negatory. Select F11.”

The leader noticed the flashing soft key on the edge of his MFD and pressed it-and to his amazement saw a video image of a large fighter aircraft with two immense weapons or tanks under its wings. It wasn’t a still image either-they could actually see the crewmembers through the canopy glass moving about and the ocean racing underneath. “Is that the bogey?” he asked incredulously. He keyed the button for the tactical frequency. “Armstrong, is that our bogey?”

“Affirmative,” the controller aboard the space station replied, the satisfaction in her voice evident. She seemed a lot older than most of the female Navy controllers he was accustomed to working with. “Coming at you at the speed of live. I make it as a Sukhoi-34 Fullback. I can’t verify any markings, and we can’t positively identify what it’s carrying, but they look like antiship missiles.”

Well, the leader thought, that was pretty cool. But it didn’t replace Mark One eyeballs. “I’m impressed, Armstrong,” he said, “but we still gotta go in and do a visual.”

“Roger,” the Armstrong controller said. “I can’t give you bull’ seye vectors, but I can give you BRA picture calls.”

The Air Force gadgets were cool, for sure, and the leader was even impressed that the lady Air Force controller knew the difference between “bull’s-eye” vectors-bearings relative to a prebriefed reference point used instead of the fighter’s own location so an enemy that might pick up their broadcast couldn’t use the information to pinpoint the fighter itself-and less secure BRA calls, or bearing-range-altitude from the fighter’s nose. But this was a real mission, not playtime-it was time to go to work. “Negative, Armstrong, we’ll be talking to our own controller for the intercept. Break. Spi