Red Storm Rising

"We have also noted higher levels of activity by Soviet naval surface forces, naval aviation units and other long-range aircraft formations, again with increased weapons exercises. Finally, there has been an increase in the time-away-from-port days of Soviet surface combatants. Although this number represents a small increase, operational patterns are different from what we've become accustomed to. Instead of sailing from one point to another and just dropping the hook, their surface combatants appear to be ru

"So what we are seeing in the Soviet Navy is an extensive stand-down accompanied by increasing tempos in the actual exercises that are being run. Matched with what we're seeing in the Soviet Army and Air Force, it appears that their military readiness is being increased across the board. At the same time that they are proposing reductions in strategic nuclear weapons, their conventional forces are rapidly improving their ability to engage in, combat operations. We in Intentions regard this combination of factors as potentially dangerous."

"Looks kind of hazy to me," an admiral said around his pipe. "How are we supposed to persuade somebody that this means anything?"

"A good question, sir. Any of these indicators taken in isolation would appear entirely logical in and of itself. What concerns us is why they are all happening at once. The problem of manpower utilization in the Soviet military has been around for generations. The problem of training norms, and integrity in their officer corps, is not exactly new either. What caught my interest was the battery thing. We are seeing the begi

"But you're concerned," CINCLANT said.

"Yes, sir."

"Me too, son. What else are you doing about it?"

"We have an inquiry into SACEUR to notify us of anything they think is unusual in the current activities of the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany. The Norwegians have increased their surveillance in the Barents Sea. We're starting to get more access to satellite photography of ports and fleet bases. DIA has been informed of our data, and is ru

"What about CIA?'

"DIA is handling that for us through their headquarters at Arlington Hall."

"When do their spring maneuvers begin?" CINCLANT asked.

"Sir, the a

"I'll tell you what's scary about this," Commander, Naval Surface Forces, Atlantic, grunted. "All of a sudden they've started doing what we've always asked them to do."

"Try selling that to the papers," Commander, Naval Air Forces, Atlantic, suggested.

"Recommendations?" CINCLANT asked his operations officer.

"We're already ru

"Yes, sir, we are. That's DIA's brief, and my contact in Arlington Hall is also asking CIA to run some additional checks. If I might amplify on this point, gentlemen, the Soviet economy is centrally managed, as I said earlier. Those industrial plans they have are fairly rigid. They don't deviate from them lightly, since those deviations tend to have a ripple effect throughout the economy as a whole. 'Disruption' may be too strong a word at present-"

"You just have a nasty suspicion," CINCLANT said. "Fine, Toland, that's what we pay you for. Good brief."

Bob took his cue and left. The admirals stayed put to talk things over.

It was a relief to leave. Much as he liked the attention, being examined by senior officials like a tissue culture on a petrie dish could make you old rather quickly. He walked through a covered walkway back to his building, and watched the late arrivals wander about looking for parking places. The grass was greening up. A civilian crew was mowing while another was fertilizing. The shrubbery was already begi

"How'd it go?" Chuck asked.

Toland stripped off his jacket and allowed his knees to sag theatrically in front of the Marine. "Pretty well. Nobody snapped my head off."

"Didn't want to worry you before, but there's people in there been known to do that. They say CINCLANT likes nothing better for breakfast than fried commander garnished with diced lieutenant."

"Big surprise. He's an admiral, isn't he? I've done briefs before, Chuck." All Marines thought all sailors were wimps, Toland reminded himself. No sense giving Chuck more encouragement for that view.

"Any conclusions?"

"CINCLANT ops talked about increasing training schedules. I got excused right after that."

"Good. We ought to have a packet of satellite shots later today. There are some questions coming in from Langley and Arlington. Nothing firm yet, but I think they might be stumbling onto some odd data. If it turns out you're right, Bob-well, you know how it works."

"Sure. Somebody closer to D.C. will make The Discovery. Shit, I don't care about that, Chuck, I want to be wrong! I want this whole friggin' thing to blow over, then I can go home and play in my garden."

"Well, maybe I got some good news for you. We got our TV tied into a new satellite receiver. I talked the communications guys into letting us tap into Russian television to catch their evening news. We won't learn anything hard, but it's a good way of catching moods. Just tried it out before you got here, and found out Ivan's ru

"Oh? I have Nevsky on tape."

"Yeah, well, they took the original negatives, flew them to EMI in London to make digitalized masters, and rerecorded the original Prokofiev score on a Dolby format. We'll be making tapes. Your machine VHS or Beta?"

"VHS." Toland laughed. "Maybe this job has a few be

Lowe handed him a six-inch file of documents. Time to get back to work. Toland settled in his chair and began sorting through the papers.