The Insurrection

Admiral Trevayne's---was his voice faltered briefly his-comships are both our most powerful single striking force and our sole technical advantage.

Had Admiral Desai won at the expense of crippling damage to Fourth Fleet, we would have been unable to follow up her "victory." Had she lost, the Terran Republic must inevitably have captured sufficient examples of the Rim's weaponry to duplicate it." He felt his listeners' stab of surprise as he deliberately used the term "Terran Republic" instead of "rebels" and their horror as they considered the consequences of the Republic's acquiring weapons in advance of anything they could produce. "I would like to ask Sky Marshal Witcinski and Vice Admiral Krupskaya a few questions," Dieter went on quietly. "First the Sky Marshal. With Fourth Fleet halted, whether by a cease-fire or the destruction of its units, what are the chances for Operation Yellowbrick?

I've suspended operations ater taking only two of our target systems, Mister Prime Minister.

We could still take the other three our ops plan calls for, but not and have anything left at the end.

"As for Fourth Fleet"--he shrugged--"I can only endorse your own estimate. Trevayne's ships are unique. Now that I've examined Vice Admiral Desafs report, I am even more convinced that they represent a qualitative breakthrough of the first magnitude. Trevayne and Admiral Desai managed to destroy almost fifty percent of the force engaged against them, but the rebel admiral knew the sort of action she had to fight. Trevayne's force lost at least as much as she did. As nearly as we can estimate, almost twelve million to

We don't know about the rebels, but Fourth Fleet lost over forty-one thousand dead. I think that's an effective answer as to whether it can carry out its part of the plan. Without the Rim to meet us more than halfway--was He shrugged again.

"I see." Dieter turned to Susan Krupskaya. "Admiral Krupskaya, what are the odds of the Republic recognizing the futility, of further operations on our part?" "Excellent, sir," she said after a very brief glance at Sanders. "Analysis of our losses must tell them Operation Yellowbrick bled us white. They've been hurt, too--butadly--but not as badly as we have." "I see," Dieter repeated. "And how quickly can they duplicate Admiral Trevayne's weapons without actual samples?" "It's hard to be precise, sir, but my analysts estimate eight months, maximum, before they have working models." Someone gasped, but Krupskaya plowed on.

"We've been looking at the data Mister Sanders brought back, and they're very, very close to the variable focus beams, judging from their' new primary. With that head start and the data they must have recoccded during the Zapata engage- ment, they can have that weapon in three to five months.

The HBM should take considerably longer--we've no evi- dence that they've begun experimenting with gray drivers-- but their new shields offset that. And we," she smiled thinly, "have no way of obtaining hard data on their new systems, since they've carefullv used them only against the Rim. It will take us much longer to duplicate them. And, Mister Prime Minister--was she paused and drew a breath his-comx is my duty to point out that, judging from their order of battle at Zapata, our previous estimates of their con- struction rates may be as much as fifteen percent low, so even our numerical advantage is in question." "Thank you, Admiral," Dieter said gravely, and ('ooked back at his shaken colleagues. "Ladies and gentlemen, I already knev what Sky Marshal Witcinski and Admiral Krupskaya were going to say, and I had them plug that data into our computers. According to the new projec- tions, we stand a sixty-five percent chance of losing the war within one year." The room was deathly silent.

"If we hold out for another year, we have a sventv percent chance of final victory--but the computers project a war which will continue for another twelve to fifteen years.

With losses," he finished quietly, "which will make the Battle of Zapata look like a children's picnic." The political leaders stared at him in shock.

"I think, my friends," he said very, very softly, looking straight at Amanda Sydon and her "war party" adherents, "that under those circumstances, we ca

They'll go on the offensive and chew us up, hoping for a knockout." "That would certainly be their most logical course," Dieter said softly, "but they're not going to do it." "Why not?" Witeinski demanded hotly, feeling his professional judgment called in question.

"I think because they don't want to destroy the Federation,"" Dieter said slowly.

"No?" Amanda Sydon laughed harshly. "They only went to war against it!" "Agreedmbut I think they just wish to be left alone," Dieter replied. Sydon stiffened angrily, and some of the others joined her, but he raised a hand and his voice was stern with hard-earned authority. "No, hear me out--all of you! From the begi

Surely none of us is so foolish as to believe that their strategists are less competent than our own?

They must know that their advantage is fleeting--that they must act before we make gMore our losses. Yet they are not going to doso.

"Ladies and gentlemen, I have received a communication from Ladisgg'aus Skjorning." The atmosphere in the conference room was so brittle it could have been chipped with a knife. "He offers"--his eyes bored into Sydon's m?an immediate armistice for the purpose of concluding a general peace." Some of the people at the table looked as if he'd just punched them; others suddenly at straighter, their eyes bright with hope. He didn't tallyy to estimate the numbers which felt either way. "His message is accompanied by an analysis almost identical to that we have just heard. But in pursuit of his armistice, he has ordered a two-month unilateral suspension of ali offensive operations, pending our reply. In short, my friends, he has voluntarily given up his best chance for outright victory to prove he desires pbledace!" Ladislaus Skjorning sat in the first-class lounge of TRS Prometheus and watched the blue and white planet grow It had been six years since last he saw that world, and the sight stirred something within him. It had been hard to induce the Republic to send most of its executive branch into Federation space aboard an un- armed passenger liner, but he'd done it. His cabinet had en rela. tiveffity easy to convince, but not Congress. Only -comence tact that the Federation had voluntarily offered a quarter of Battle Fleet as hostages for the safe conduct of their guests had outweighed congressional memories of Fio