Forward the Foundation

"Various governments have heard that 'eventually' from you for decades. Isn't it true, Professor, that you say your psychohistory predicts that the junta is unstable, that my rule is unstable, that in a short time it will collapse?"

Seldon frowned. "The technique is not yet firm enough for me to say that this is something that psychohistory states."

"I put it to you that psychohistory does state it and that this is common knowledge within your Project."

"No," said Seldon warmly. "No such thing. It is possible that some among us have interpreted some relationships to indicate that the junta may be an unstable form of government, but there are other relationships that may easily be interpreted to show it is stable. That is the reason why we must continue our work. At the present moment it is all too easy to use incomplete data and imperfect reasoning to reach any conclusion we wish."

"But if you decide to present the conclusion that the government is unstable and say that psychohistory warrants it-even if it does not actually do so-will it not add to the instability?"

"It may very well do that, General. And if we a

"Enough! Tell me straight out! What do you think psychohistory shows about my government?"

"It shows, we think, that there are elements of instability in it, but we are not certain-and ca

"In other words, psychohistory simply tells you what you would know without psychohistory and it is that in which government has invested uncounted piles of credits."

"The time will come when psychohistory will tell us what we could not know without it and then the investment will pay itself back many, many times over."

"And how long will it be before that time comes?"

"Not too long, I hope. We have been making rather gratifying progress in the last few years."

Te

Seldon pondered, then said, "I can prepare a detailed report for you, but it will take time."

"Of course it will. Days, months, years-and somehow it will never be written. Do you take me for a fool?"

"No, of course not, General. However, I don't want to be taken for a fool, either. I can tell you something that I will take sole responsibility for. I have seen it in my psychohistorical research, but I may have misinterpreted what I saw. However, since you insist-"

"I insist."

"You mentioned taxes a little while ago. You said raising taxes was difficult. Certainly. It is always difficult. Every government must do its work by collecting wealth in one form or another. The only two ways in which such credits can be obtained are, first, by robbing a neighbor, or second, persuading a government's own citizens to grant the credits willingly and peaceably.

"Since we have established a Galactic Empire that has been conducting its business in reasonable fashion for thousands of years, there is no possibility of robbing a neighbor, except as the result of an occasional rebellion and its repression. This does not happen often enough to support a government-and, if it did, the government would be too unstable to last long, in any case."

Seldon drew a deep breath and went on. "Therefore, credits must be raised by asking the citizens to hand over part of their wealth for government use. Presumably, since the government will then work efficiently, the citizens can better spend their credits in this way than to hoard it-each man to himself-while living in a dangerous and chaotic anarchy.

"However, though the request is reasonable and the citizenry is better off paying taxes as their price for maintaining a stable and efficient government, they are nevertheless reluctant to do so. In order to overcome this reluctance, governments must make it appear that they are not taking too many credits, and that they are considering each citizen's rights and benefits. In other words, they must lower the percentage taken out of low incomes; they must allow deductions of various kinds to be made before the tax is assessed, and so on.

"As time goes on, the tax situation inevitably grows more and more complex as different worlds, different sectors within each world, and different economic divisions all demand and require special treatment. Me result is that the tax-collecting branch of the government grows in size and complexity and tends to become uncontrollable. The average citizen ca

"What's more, an ever-larger fraction of the funds collected must be put into ru

"In the end, the tax situation becomes overwhelming. It inspires discontent and rebellion. The history books tend to ascribe these things to greedy businessmen, to corrupt politicians, to brutal warriors, to ambitious viceroys-but these are just the individuals who take advantage of the tax overgrowth."

The General said harshly, "Are you telling me that our tax system is overcomplicated?"

Seldon said, "If it were not, it would be the only one in history that wasn't, as far as I know. If there is one thing that psychohistory tells me is inevitable, it is tax overgrowth."

"And what do we do about it?"

"That I ca

"Never mind the report. The tax system is overcomplicated, isn't it? Isn't that what you are saying?"

"It is possible that it is," said Seldon cautiously.

"And to correct that, one must make the tax system simpler-as simple as possible, in fact."

"I would have to study-"

"Nonsense. The opposite of great complication is great simplicity. I don't need a report to tell me that."

"As you say, General," said Seldon.

At this point the General looked up suddenly, as though he had been called-as, indeed, he had been. His fists clenched and holovision images of Colonel Li

Thunderstruck, Seldon exclaimed, "Dors! What are you doing here?"

The General said nothing, but his brow furrowed into a frown.

The General had had a bad night and so, out of apprehension, had the colonel. They faced each other now-each at a loss.

The General said, "Tell me again what this woman did."

Li

"Did she frighten you? A single woman?"

"Let me tell you exactly what she did and let me tell you a few other things about her. I don't know how true all the stories about her are, but what happened yesterday evening is true enough."

He told the story again and the General listened, puffing out his cheeks.

"Bad," he said. "What do we do?"

"I think our course is plain before us. We want psychohistory-"

"Yes, we do," said the General. "Seldon told me something about taxation that-But never mind. That is beside the point at the moment. Go on."

Li

"Yes, I agree. Now what about the woman?"

"Well, there you are. We haven't taken her into consideration because she has been careful to remain in the background. But I strongly suspect now that it will be difficult, perhaps impossible, to remove Seldon quietly and without implicating the government, as long as the woman remains alive."

"Do you really believe that she will mangle you and me-if she thinks we have harmed her man?" said the General, his mouth twisting in contempt.

"I really think she will and that she will start a rebellion as well. It will he exactly as she promised."

"You are turning into a coward."

"General, please. I am trying to be sensible. I'm not backing off. We must take care of this Tiger Woman." He paused thoughtfully. "As a matter of fact, my sources have told me this and I admit to having paid far too little attention to the matter."

"And how do you think we can get rid of her?"

Li

Seldon had had a bad night also, nor was the new day promising to be much better. There weren't too many times when Hari felt a

He said, "What a foolish thing to do! Wasn't it enough that we were all staying at the Dome's Edge Hotel? That alone would have been sufficient to drive a paranoid ruler into thoughts of some sort of conspiracy."

"How? We were unarmed, Hari. It was a holiday affair, the final touch of your birthday celebration. We posed no threat."

"Yes, but then you carried out your invasion of the Palace grounds. It was unforgivable. You raced to the Palace to interfere with my session with the General, when I had specifically-and several times-made it plain that I didn't want you there. I had my own plans, you know."