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Значение Китайского проекта «Один пояс – один путь» для российской экономики
Китайский масштабный проект «Один пояс, один путь», анонсированный в 2013 году, представляет значительный интерес для России. Учитывая санкции, введенные западными странами, и дальнейшее укрепление торгово-экономических и политических отношений со странами Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона, Россия и Китай укрепляют сотрудничество в рамках данной инициативы. Особенно актуальным и острым в связи с расхождением целей и интересов китайской и российской сторон является вопрос сопряжения проекта «Один пояс, один путь» и Евразийского экономического союза. Как показывает шестилетний опыт реализации инициативы «Один пояс, один путь», реализация проекта идет не гладко и вызывает многочисленные нарекания в адрес Китая из-за навязывания интересов и условий кабалы другим странам, коррупционной составляющей проекта и его непрозрачности. Таким образом, отношение к проекту неоднозначное, и в этих условиях важно выстраивать отношения между Россией и Китаем оптимальным образом для взаимовыгодного сотрудничества. Целью исследования является анализ влияния китайского проекта «Один пояс, один путь» на российскую экономику. Предметом исследования является китайский проект «Один пояс, один путь». Автор приходит к выводу, что в настоящее время российское участие в проекте «Один пояс, один путь» имеет в основном потенциальные преимущества и возможности, а реальные результаты для российской экономики весьма незначительны.
Ключевые слова: Китай, экономика, Евразийский экономический союз, «Один пояс, один путь», Россия.
The Chinese large – scale project «One belt – one road» a
Keywords: China, economy, Eurasian Economic Union, «One belt – one road», Russia.
Introduction
The importance of studying the impact of the Chinese project «One belt – one road» on the Russian economy is beyond doubt. The Chinese project is an open initiative and any country can join it. The project has a huge multiplier effect and is very attractive not only for China, but also for other countries. One of the active participants of the concept of «One belt – one road» is Russia. Nowadays Russia and China are strengthening economic and political cooperation within the framework of this initiative. This article will analyze the impact of the Chinese mega project «One belt – one road» on the Russian economy, highlight its advantages and disadvantages.
Methodology
In the course of the study the author identifying the advantages and disadvantages of the influence of the Chinese project «One belt – one road» on the Russian economy, used a comparative method, analysis and synthesis. The research is based on the materials of Russian and foreign experts and scientists.
Main results
The Chinese project «One belt – one road», combining the «Silk Road Economic belt» and the «Maritime silk road of the XXI century», was first proposed by the President of China – Xi Jinping in 2013. This project is a key element of the general Chinese policy and is aimed at the strengthening China’s position in the international arena, solving China’s domestic economic problems and strengthening regional integration.
This project will lead to significant transformations in the Eurasian space, in particular in the transport and logistics sectors. The project involves the development of cooperation between the countries in five key areas: infrastructure cooperation, political coordination, the growth of mutual trade, strengthening of spiritual unity and free movement of capital30.
According to the project, it is expected that there will be three main routes of the Economic belt: North – from China through Central Asia and Russia to the Europe, Central – from China through the Central and West Asia to the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea, South – from China to the Southeast and South Asia to the Indian Ocean. Within these areas it is pla
The Chinese project is an open initiative and any country can join it. In 2019 China has already signed 173 agreements according to the participation in the project with 125 countries and 29 international organizations. It is interesting that over 60 countries joined the project only in 2018. The project has been so deeply integrated into China’s foreign policy that it was mentioned in the Charter of the Communist party of China in 201731.
The scale of the project «One belt – one road» is enormous from the different points of view. For persuasiveness we can give some statistics. Morgan Stanley estimates that by 2027 the project will cost approximately $1.3 trillion. The Chinese banks and financial institutions, mostly state-owned, have invested more than $90 billion in this project. The reason is this project is widely supported by the Chinese government. China’s partners have invested more than $ 40 billion in the Chinese economy. The volume of trade between China and «One belt – one road» participants, which exceeded $6 trillion, is impressive. The trade with project partners increases by an average of 4% per year. Over the six years of the project’s existence it accounted for 27.4% of the Chinese trade in whole32. So, the project has a huge multiplier effect and is very attractive, not only for China, but also for other countries.
30
China in the world and regional politics. The history and modernity. Issue XXII / ed. Safronov E. I. – Moscow: Institute of Far Eastern studies, 2017. – 400 p. URL: https:// publications.hse.ru/mirror/pubs/share/direct/211288436 (date of access: 18.12.2019).
31
Manukov S. One belt and one road, the clarification path and the extension zone // EurAsia Daily, 03.05.2019. URL: https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2019/05/03/odin-poyas-odin- put-utochnenie-puti-i-rasshirenie-poyasa (date of access: 14.12.2019).
32
Ibid.