Аннотация
Anthropic Bias explores how to reason when you suspect that your evidence is biased by "e;observation selection effects"e;--that is, evidence that has been filtered by the precondition that there be some suitably positioned observer to "e;have"e; the evidence. This conundrum--sometimes alluded to as "e;the anthropic principle,"e; "e;self-locating belief,"e; or "e;indexical information"e;--turns out to be a surprisingly perplexing and intellectually stimulating challenge, one abounding with important implications for many areas in science and philosophy. There are the philosophical thought experiments and paradoxes: the Doomsday Argument; Sleeping Beauty; the Presumptuous Philosopher; Adam & Eve; the Absent-Minded Driver; the Shooting Room.And there are the applications in contemporary science: cosmology ("e;How many universes are there?"e;, "e;Why does the universe appear fine-tuned for life?"e;); evolutionary theory ("e;How improbable was the evolution of intelligent life on our planet?"e;); the problem of time's arrow ("e;Can it be given a thermodynamic explanation?"e;); quantum physics ("e;How can the many-worlds theory be tested?"e;); game-theory problems with imperfect recall ("e;How to model them?"e;); even traffic analysis ("e;Why is the 'next lane' faster?"e;).Anthropic Bias argues that the same principles are at work across all these domains. And it offers a synthesis: a mathematically explicit theory of observation selection effects that attempts to meet scientific needs while steering clear of philosophical paradox.
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